Gambler’s Fallacy aka, Monte Carlo Fallacy is one term that crops up repeatedly in the casino literature. While most of the online players have their own theories on what number or colour will occur next, they will put it to practice with the Gambler’s Fallacy playing some part in their wagering decision making.
Of all the three types of gamblers, viz. the professional gambler, recreational gambler and the pathological gambler, it is the last one who takes the Gambler’s Fallacy to heart, literally. They totally believe that despite their losses, they will recoup their losses with wins at the end. They will continue with this belief until their money runs out.
Gambler’s Fallacy: Misguided Truth or False
Answering what the Gambler’s Fallacy is a good topic for all the online casino mobile players.
It is based on the belief that a positive outcome is expected when a series of negative outcome has already occurred or vice versa. Technically, the term fallacy includes an event which is supposed to occur based on the past sequence of outcomes. The past outcomes will decide on the future outcomes.
Consider the classic example of the roulette game. Suppose the last 5 spins resulted in a red landing, the roulette player will assume the probability of the black landing for the next spin. The players are misguided by the notion that since the earlier spins resulted in red landing, the next black landing is overdue. This false notion is what the Gambler’s Fallacy is all about.
Actual Truth behind Gambler’s Fallacy
This notion is so much further than the truth. In reality, the roulette wheel or the ball doesn’t decide the outcome of the spin. They don’t have any memory of the past outcomes, meaning every spin is independent of the earlier ones. You can’t predict the result of the spins.
The same notion is seen in almost all the areas of gambling, be it sports, casino or even in real life. Eventually all things even out over the course of time. This could be days, months or years. The idea of betting on an event which has no fixed time is not only ridiculous but also not feasible.
Hot Hand Fallacy
Going hand in hand with the Gambler’s fallacy, is the “Hot Hand Fallacy”. This is in contrast to the Gambler’s Fallacy. Here it is assumed the winning or hot streak will continue indefinitely. They believe that since they have been winning the bets, the probability of them winning the next bet is more. This winning streak will continue.
Studies have been conducted to verify whether both the Hot Hand fallacy and the Gambler’s Fallacy are true to some extent. There is no conclusive proof to support this argument. Generally, it is observed that the players who believe in both these concepts, end up making smarter bets with better odds (not always true). They are better equipped to adapt to the situations and make suitable adjustments to their betting game plan. If you are a beginner in gambling than you should definitely read our 10 important tips for gamblers blog before you get started.
It has also been observed that cognitive suggestion is one of the reasons for players to fall prey for Gambler’s Fallacy. The power of suggestion can influence the betting pattern of the players.
On a closing note, the gambling player should always remember that nothing can influence the outcome of the next bet. While you can predict the possible outcomes based on the large chunk of data available, there is always the unknown factor which can turn all of them wrong.
That’s what gambling is all about. If everything were predictable, you wouldn’t be gambling in the first place would you? It’s the unexpected thrill of winning that drives you to the casinos right? So enjoy playing and have fun!
